MM b/16 — Paper a6: RiskyMAD (Existential Risk Forecast)

How long does a civilization survive without periodic resets? Paper a6 builds the RiskyMAD (Risky Mutually Assured Destruction) stochastic model, formalizing the JUB prediction that concentration of power without Jubilee-System correction leads to self-destruction within quantifiable timescales. Where JUB (a4) proves the structure of the problem, RiskyMAD provides the urgency — translating abstract theorems into concrete risk forecasts.

Dependencies: Builds on e7Day (a2) and JUB (a4).

Live drafts (OOv3 and the b16-extra spin-off, 2026m09d07)

• The paper (live draft): Forecasting Actuarial Waiting Times for Accidental Nuclear Winter

• b16-extra — the analytical treatment: b16-extra — The Waiting-Time Law, Derived Line by Line — the step-by-step derivation of the first-passage law behind SIA-4/5/8, three independent routes, a BEST Names table, and companion code in extra/code/. This is the agreed home for technical material that would otherwise bloat b16.

Earlier strata — superseded, kept for the record

Each is kept rather than overwritten: it is the record of what was claimed when. For the current argument read the live drafts above.

• OOv2 (2026m07d16) — where the numbers were sharpened: Forecasting Actuarial Waiting Times for Accidental Nuclear Winter

• MMv3 (2026m04d09): RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape | Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape

• MMv2 (2026m04d09): RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape | Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape

• MMv1 (2026m04d09): RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape | Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape