MM b/16 — Paper a6: RiskyMAD (Existential Risk Forecast)

How long does a civilization survive without periodic resets? Paper a6 builds the RiskyMAD (Risky Mutually Assured Destruction) stochastic model, formalizing the JUB prediction that concentration of power without Jubilee-System correction leads to self-destruction within quantifiable timescales. Where JUB (a4) proves the structure of the problem, RiskyMAD provides the urgency — translating abstract theorems into concrete risk forecasts.

Dependencies: Builds on e7Day (a2) and JUB (a4).

Current drafts (MMv2, 2026m04d09)

• Formal paper: RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape

• General reader intro: Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape

• Earlier drafts (MMv1): RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape | Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape

• Full index: AAA — HEAVEN Study Series (AnyAllArrival)