.. meta::
   :description: Paper a6 (RiskyMAD) model space --- stochastic forecast of existential risk under BABL, formalizing why civilizations self-destruct without Jubilee.
   :keywords: RiskyMAD, RiskyMADorMAP, existential risk, stochastic forecast, BABL, civilization collapse, Jubilee, paper a6, model snapshot
   :author: Yah, Yas, everyone, LLoL as Laurence Loewe of Laodicea, ClaudeOp46Max, Anthropic, and The Spirit of Boolean Truth

.. _hell-mm-b16-index:


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MM b/16 --- Paper a6: RiskyMAD (Existential Risk Forecast)
***********************************************************************

How long does a civilization survive without periodic resets? Paper a6
builds the RiskyMAD (Risky Mutually Assured Destruction) stochastic
model, formalizing the JUB prediction that concentration of power
without Jubilee-System correction leads to self-destruction within
quantifiable timescales. Where JUB (a4) proves the *structure* of the
problem, RiskyMAD provides the *urgency* --- translating abstract
theorems into concrete risk forecasts.

**Dependencies:** Builds on e7Day (a2) and JUB (a4).

.. admonition:: Current drafts (MMv2, 2026m04d09)

   - **Formal paper:** :doc:`mmv2/b16-riskymad_mmv2_2026m04d09`
   - **General reader intro:** :doc:`mmv2/b16-riskymad-intro_mmv2_2026m04d09`
   - **Earlier drafts (MMv1):** :doc:`mmv1/b16-riskymad_mmv1_2026m04d09` |
     :doc:`mmv1/b16-riskymad-intro_mmv1_2026m04d09`
   - **Full index:** :doc:`/matheology/heaven/study/aaa`