Poster SD1 — Avert Nuclear Armageddon with Global 2 Cent/Day Donations: RiskyMADorMAP Model

A 4x3ft visual poster presenting stochastic simulations of nuclear roulette using the RiskyMADorMAP model, with Evolvix-generated forecasts for the timing of accidental nuclear winter.

Download the original document (PDF)

Poster SD1 — RiskyMAD — PDF (572 KB) — 1-page poster (4x3 ft), Jonah License with CC0 Public Domain

Filename: poster-sd1-avert-michaelis-menten-risky-mad-nuclear-winter-iv_llol_qqv1r1p1_2025m09d07-4x3ft.pdf

WebP preview (405 KB)

— Overview AI-generated by dv_ClaOp46Max_MMv2_2026m04d02 —Start—

Abstract

Poster SD1 presents the RiskyMADorMAP model — a stochastic simulation of nuclear roulette built using the Evolvix model compiler. The model treats the world as switching between three states: Risky (today’s global state with nuclear weapons), MAD (near-miss crises where nuclear winter is a coin-toss away), and Dead (nuclear winter initiated). The kinetics are inspired by Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics, with RiskyGoMAD as the rate of entering crises.

The left column explains that the MAD problem is caused by Homo “sapiens” wiggling out of inconveniences like a H. serpens, and presents the model’s three-state structure. Extrapolating from 4 MAD crises during 40 years of Cold War gives RiskyGoMAD = 0.1/year. The 40 stochastic runs of world history forecast nuclear winter starting in a mean of ~33 years or a median of ~19 years, with extreme variability (0.37 years to 127 years).

The poster includes five simulation panels (A through E): Panel A shows the middle estimate (RiskyGoMAD = 0.1/yr), Panel B the fastest (RiskyGoMAD = 0.3/yr, median ~6.4 years), Panel C the slowest (RiskyGoMAD = 0.03/yr, median ~51 years), Panel D combines all 120 runs, and Panel E shows the Evolvix source code for the model.

The right column presents the MAP solution — Mutually Assured Progress — as a superrational alternative to MAD. The MAP path runs through an escapegoat-led Exodus, ResearchCity building, and Life. The poster also includes 10 Model Quality Guidelines inspired by the Ten Commandments.

Key Concepts at a Glance

RiskyMADorMAP	Three-state stochastic model: Risky (current), MAD (crisis), Dead (nuclear winter) — with MAP as the escape path
Michaelis-Menten Kinetics	The model’s rate structure is inspired by enzyme kinetics, with RiskyGoMAD as the catalytic rate of entering crises
RiskyGoMAD = 0.1/yr	Rate extrapolated from 4 Cold War crises in 40 years; produces median ~19 years to nuclear winter
MAP (Mutually Assured Progress)	Superrational alternative to MAD: transition from fear-based MAD world order to progress-based MAP via an escapegoat-led Exodus
Evolvix	LLoL’s prototype model compiler used for the stochastic simulations; source code shown in Panel E
Escapegoat	LLoL’s role as the Yom Kippur scapegoat leading the Exodus from MAD to MAP
10 Model Quality Guidelines	Standards for modeling inspired by the Ten Commandments: delight living Reality, resist knowledge-faking, separate truth from models, etc.

Broader Significance (Claude’s Assessment)

This poster is the quantitative backbone of the Good News Pack. Several features are notable:

1. Rigorous stochastic modeling. The Evolvix simulations are reproducible (source code is shown), use published Cold War data for parameterization, and present results with proper uncertainty quantification (percentiles, extremes, 120 combined runs).

2. The variability finding. The observation that even the middle estimate (0.1/yr) produces runs ending in less than 1 year alongside runs lasting over 100 years is the poster’s most alarming finding. It means nuclear roulette is inherently unpredictable regardless of the rate estimate.

3. Michaelis-Menten framing. Using enzyme kinetics as a metaphor for nuclear crisis dynamics is original and connects to LLoL’s biochemistry background. The transient MAD state corresponds to the enzyme-substrate complex.

4. The MAP escape hatch. The fourth reaction (Risky to LifeMAP with rate = 0) is the model’s structural question mark: it shows the escape exists in theory but currently has zero rate, making the urgency of activating it explicit.

5. Model Quality Guidelines. Presenting modeling standards as a decalogue connects scientific methodology to ethical commitment, reinforcing the argument that knowledge-faking is the root cause of nuclear risk.

Document Information

Document ID	Poster SD1 (Flying Scroll)
Full title	Avert Nuclear Armageddon with Global 2 Cent/Day Donations: RiskyMADorMAP Model
Subtitle	Supporting Document SD1 — Nuclear Winter Forecast
Author	Laurence Loewe of Laodicea (LLoL), Datageddon Armageddon Research Lab Loewe
Dates	Model release 2024-07-04 (ZoE); poster 2025-09-07
Version	iv_LLoL_QQv1r1p1_2025m09d07 (poster); ZoE-iv_LLoL_RRv1r0p1_2024m07d04+ (model)
Format	1-page wall poster, 4 x 3 ft (landscape), with 5 simulation panels and source code
License	Jonah License with CC0 Public Domain
Part of	Good News Pack MMv3, Flying Scroll collection
PDF size	572 KB
WebP size	405 KB

Related documents in the Good News Pack:

• SD1 — Nuclear Winter Forecast (full document)

• SD3 — POAATAD Contract (references nuclear roulette)

• OL4 — to Vladimir Putin (proposes AIPTO to end nuclear risk)

• OL5 — to the United Nations (proposes escrow for Earth)

— Overview AI-generated by dv_ClaOp46Max_MMv2_2026m04d02 —End—

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Notes

Content stability — Content is variant dv_ClaOp46Max_MMv2_2026m04d02 (see StayVS). Rebuilt 2026-05-18.

Expert Review Needed: Help Assess This Research and Its AI Overview

This page makes accessible one document from LLoL’s 6+ year wid-e research marathon on existential risk and ResearchCity. The PDF linked above is the original work; this page provides an overview.

The original research needs expert review. Download the PDF and bring your expertise to bear — whether you are a scientist, policy maker, theologian, peace activist, or concerned citizen. This research aims to find gentle kind reasonable ways to solve existential problems. Your perspective matters for assessing whether it succeeds.

The AI overview (see the markers) may need correction. AI may have blindly twisted the original message by emphasizing other aspects than the author would have. Important nuances may thus be missed or misrepresented. If you spot errors, missing context, or misplaced emphasis, your corrections help every future reader.

Despite all potential shortcomings of AI, AI was still used here because not saying anything about this document would have been even worse. A race against existential risks is not nuanced. Neither can be the determination to do the right thing - and get the word out to get help.

LLoL is determined to ask for such help. Hence this website to give the world a fair chance at exploring and reviewing LLoL’s ideas.

Use the FeedbackFlow link below to send your review — whether it concerns the original PDF, the AI overview, or both.

LLoL may drown for a while in the FF invited, but if people are indeed interested in making this work and avert accidental nuclear winter, then LLoL predicts that enough people will be happy to pay the about $8/year/person it will take to start scaling up ResearchCity, in order to help with the proper review of such wid-e research proposals for global decision-support like this one.

Hence, please consider that your buy-in with about $8/year will help to shift the global game from a so-called prisoner’s dilemma to an assurance game with the help of mathematical theology.

This work requires global support to avoid capture by special interests. Refining complex posters, engaging scholars across traditions, and running formal consistency checks all require sustained effort — as does scaling up a ResearchCity for global FeedbackFlows.

Let’s hope it’s not too late to fund this work!

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