Matheo-b16 — RiskyMAD, the existential-risk forecast & the MAP escape#
RiskyMAD is a three-state Markov model (Risky / MAD / Dead), checked against the Cold-War near-miss record, that forecasts accidental nuclear winter — and a formally derivable escape (MAP).
How to use: The files below are MockupModels = MM. Their maturity approximates that of a newborn baby that still has a lot of growing up and surviving to do before it can leave its current helpless state by growing into someone who can do “useful” things. This baby feeds on constructive criticism; flattery is like sugar: nice but mostly useless; killing a baby is easy, raising it to become a responsible adult is hard. LLoL got these files so far. Now LLoL has to pass on the baton in this global race. To raise a responsible mathematical theology takes a world. Nowadays it takes a global village to raise a responsible child. Neither can succeed without the other. Hence, LLoL calls to #AuditTheMath, either as a participant or expert contributor or by buying in as a Select Stadion Backer to support those who work on this monumental task.
RiskyMAD: The Existential Risk Forecast and the MAP Escape#
Broader Significance
Nuclear deterrence is usually debated in words; this paper debates it in numbers. RiskyMAD is a deliberately small three-state stochastic model (Risky / MAD / Dead), calibrated to the Cold War record of nuclear near-misses, that treats civilizational survival the way an actuary treats a life: as a probability distribution over time-to-failure. Its central finding is sobering and auditable — at the observed crisis rate the median time to accidental nuclear winter is about 19 years, and roughly 1 in 40 runs reaches catastrophe within a single year, a risk no airline, regulator, or insurer would tolerate in any other domain.
The result is not a prediction of doom but a diagnosis with a treatment. Because the Dead state is absorbing, accidental nuclear winter is a stochastic certainty under business as usual — the only open question is when. The paper then derives an escape: MAP (Mutually Assured Progress) converts the nuclear Prisoner’s Dilemma into an Assurance Game through a credible first-mover and periodic recalibration via the Jubilee System. Every number is reproducible from published model code, so the argument can be checked rather than believed.
Abstract
RiskyMAD is a three-state continuous-time Markov model (Risky / MAD / Dead) calibrated to the Cold War near-miss record. It forecasts accidental nuclear winter with a median of ~19 years at the base crisis rate, and roughly 1-in-40 simulation runs reaching catastrophe within the first year — a figure robust across death-probability scenarios (1/10 to 1/2).
The catastrophe is a stochastic certainty, not a possibility: the Dead state is absorbing and reachable, so it is reached with probability 1 given enough time. The parameters set when, not whether — and the crisis rate is plausibly rising, not constant.
An escape is formally derivable: MAP (Mutually Assured Progress) converts the nuclear Prisoner’s Dilemma into an Assurance Game via a credible first-mover and periodic recalibration (the Jubilee System). The model code is published and auditable. #AuditTheMath
Nuclear Roulette Is Unwinnable — Here Is the Escape#
Broader Significance
Most people have never been told how close the world repeatedly came to nuclear war — Arkhipov in 1962, Petrov in 1983 — or what those near-misses imply if the game keeps being played. This plain-language introduction translates the RiskyMAD model into one image: a forty-chamber revolver fired once a year that, if it ever fires, kills billions. Built from Cold War data, the model finds that about 1 in 40 years ends in accidental nuclear winter, with a median time of roughly 19 years — a level of risk no airline, regulator, or insurer would tolerate anywhere else.
The point is not fear but honesty, and honesty is the first step out of any trap. The catastrophe is a stochastic certainty under business as usual, yet a concrete escape exists: MAP (Mutually Assured Progress) changes the underlying game from a Prisoner’s Dilemma to one where cooperation is rational, through a credible first-mover and periodic recalibration via the Jubilee System. The introduction closes with specific, audited actions that ordinary people — including the young — can take today. The formal model is Matheo-b16, built to be checked, not believed.
Abstract
Nuclear roulette is a 40-chamber game played every year: a simple model built from Cold War data finds that ~1 in 40 simulation runs produces accidental nuclear winter within the first year, with a median of ~19 years — a risk no airline or regulator would ever accept.
It is a stochastic certainty, not a maybe: as long as crises occur and can escalate, the catastrophe is reached eventually with probability 1. The risk is plausibly rising as truth-channels degrade and decision times shrink.
There is an escape: MAP (Mutually Assured Progress) replaces the threat of mutual destruction with a shared commitment to mutual progress and periodic recalibration (the Jubilee System) — and there are concrete things ordinary people, including the young, can do now. The formal model is Matheo-b16. #AuditTheMath