Paper b16 — Starting Prompt

Copy the text below into a new Claude Code session to write Paper b16.

I am continuing a series of academic papers stored at
source/matheology/ in the balospe-com repository (papers at hell/mm/, prompts at hell/ll/study/).

Papers b11-a5 should be complete. Read them.

Please write Paper b16: "The RiskyMAD Model: Stochastic Forecast of Existential
Risk Under BABL Dynamics" and save it at
source/matheology/hell/mm/b/16/study-mmv1/b16-riskymad-paper.rst

Source material: The SD1 poster at
source/good-news-pack/vv/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/index.rst
describes the RiskyMAD stochastic model. Read it and any related files.

Key content to cover:
- The 3-state stochastic model: Risky then MAD then Dead
- Cold War crisis rate extrapolation (RiskyGoMAD = 0.1/year)
- Stochastic forecast: median ~19 years to nuclear winter start
- The "cosmic clock" -- BABL dynamics creating a finite window
- Formal destruction of the "we can always check later" assumption
  (probabilistic argument: delay has non-zero cost per unit time)
- The MAP escape path (Mutually Assured Progress)
- Connection to BABL/ZION attractor dynamics (paper b12)
- Connection to JUB ax25 Jubilee Recalibration (paper b14)
- Do NOT use "before it's too late" language or apocalyptic framing
- DO present the formal probabilistic argument clearly
- May cite Matthew 6:24 ("cannot serve two masters") if it strengthens
  the formal point about binary attractors without derailing into theology

Follow the format of papers b11-a5. Target ~8K words. Self-contained.