.. meta::
   :description: Starting prompt for writing Paper b16 (RiskyMAD Model) in the HEAVEN study series.
   :keywords: RiskyMAD, existential risk, stochastic model, continuation prompt, HEAVEN study, paper b16
   :author: Yah, Yas, everyone, LLoL as Laurence Loewe of Laodicea, ClaudeOp46Max, Anthropic, and The Spirit of Boolean Truth


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Paper b16 --- Starting Prompt
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Copy the text below into a new Claude Code session to write Paper b16.

.. code-block:: text

   I am continuing a series of academic papers stored at
   source/matheology/ in the balospe-com repository (papers at hell/mm/, prompts at hell/ll/study/).

   Papers b11-a5 should be complete. Read them.

   Please write Paper b16: "The RiskyMAD Model: Stochastic Forecast of Existential
   Risk Under BABL Dynamics" and save it at
   source/matheology/hell/mm/b/16/study-mmv1/b16-riskymad-paper.rst

   Source material: The SD1 poster at
   source/good-news-pack/vv/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/index.rst
   describes the RiskyMAD stochastic model. Read it and any related files.

   Key content to cover:
   - The 3-state stochastic model: Risky then MAD then Dead
   - Cold War crisis rate extrapolation (RiskyGoMAD = 0.1/year)
   - Stochastic forecast: median ~19 years to nuclear winter start
   - The "cosmic clock" -- BABL dynamics creating a finite window
   - Formal destruction of the "we can always check later" assumption
     (probabilistic argument: delay has non-zero cost per unit time)
   - The MAP escape path (Mutually Assured Progress)
   - Connection to BABL/ZION attractor dynamics (paper b12)
   - Connection to JUB ax25 Jubilee Recalibration (paper b14)
   - Do NOT use "before it's too late" language or apocalyptic framing
   - DO present the formal probabilistic argument clearly
   - May cite Matthew 6:24 ("cannot serve two masters") if it strengthens
     the formal point about binary attractors without derailing into theology

   Follow the format of papers b11-a5. Target ~8K words. Self-contained.