:orphan: .. include:: /_templates/include-file/page-prefix.rst .. meta:: :description: Download the Evolvix prototype compiler (MMv0r3p1-RC1) used to produce the RiskyMAD nuclear winter forecasts in SD1. :keywords: Evolvix, prototype compiler, stochastic simulation, Gillespie algorithm, RiskyMAD, download, reproducibility :author: Yah, Yas, everyone, LLoL as Laurence Loewe of Laodicea, ClaudeOp46Max, Anthropic, and The Spirit of Boolean Truth **************************************************************************************************** Evolvix Prototype Compiler --- Download and RiskyMAD Model Code **************************************************************************************************** *The tool behind the nuclear winter forecast. Download it. Run the model. Check the math.* .. _evx-compiler-download: Download ========== The Evolvix prototype command-line compiler (MMv0r3p1-RC1, 2015m03d11) is the tool used to produce the stochastic RiskyMAD simulations in :doc:`SD1 `. .. list-table:: Evolvix Prototype Compiler Downloads :header-rows: 1 :widths: 40 15 45 * - Platform - Size - File * - **macOS** (OS X 10, x64) - 6.2 MB - `Evolvix_CL_0.3.1_RC1_x64_OS_X_10.tar.gz `__ * - **Windows 7** (x64) - 5.9 MB - `Evolvix_CL_0.3.1_RC1_x64_Windows7.zip `__ * - **Ubuntu 14** (x64) - 14.3 MB - `Evolvix_CL_0.3.1_RC1_x64_Ubuntu14.tar.gz `__ * - **Fedora 21** (x64) - 14.5 MB - `Evolvix_CL_0.3.1_RC1_x64_Fedora21.tar.gz `__ * - **RHEL 7** (x64) - 14.3 MB - `Evolvix_CL_0.3.1_RC1_x64_RHEL7.tar.gz `__ * - **User documentation** (HTML) - 3.4 MB - `evolvix-cl-user-docs-browser-mmv0r3p1_rc1_2015-html.zip `__ * - **Intro manual** (PDF) - 739 KB - `evolvix-prototype-intro-manual-mmv0r3p0beta_2014m10d01-57page.pdf `__ **License:** :doc:`Jonah License with CC0 Public Domain ` **Evolvix project archive:** `web.archive.org/web/20191227220523/http://evolvix.org/ `__ For the full Evolvix vision and research roadmap, see :doc:`STa1-EVX `. .. _evx-riskymad-code: The RiskyMAD Model Code ========================== The complete Evolvix model code as shown on the :doc:`SD1 poster `. This is the point estimate used for the base-case forecast (median ~19 years to accidental nuclear winter): .. code-block:: text :caption: RiskyMAD model --- Evolvix source code (from SD1 poster) Evolvix Quest RiskyMADdead (Question: "How many years until humanity self-destructs in a nuclear roulette accident?") !L works with prototype Evolvix MMv0r3p1-rc1 Simulate stochastically until 200 :["years"] !L Run 1 random world history into future !L Simulate deterministically until 200 :["years"] !L Predict future of countless averages Initial Amount of Risky = 1 !L starts as 1 = active now Initial Amount of MAD = 0 !L only 1 if reached from Risky Initial Amount of Dead = 0 !L starts at 0, becomes 1 in nuclear winter Initial Amount of rRiskyGoMAD = 0.10 !L Global rate: 0.03-0.3 /year Initial Amount of rMADescapes = 6 !L Oversimplified or overcomplicated escape Initial Amount of rMADtoDEATH = 3 !L Non-escape: rate of overreach Action 1 ( Risky ---[ Rate = 0.10 ]---> MAD ) !L crisis arises Action 2 ( MAD ---[ Rate = 6 ]---> Risky ) !L crisis de-escalates Action 3 ( MAD ---[ Rate = 3 ]---> Dead ) !L nuclear exchange Action 4 ( Risky ---[ Rate = 0 ]---> LifeMAP ) !L escape (currently 0) **How to read this code:** Evolvix models stochastic systems using the Gillespie algorithm (exact stochastic simulation of continuous-time Markov chains). The model has three states (Risky, MAD, Dead) and four transitions (Actions 1--4). When the system is in the MAD state, two competing reactions fire stochastically: escape back to Risky (rate 6) or death (rate 3). The probability of death per crisis is therefore 3/(6+3) = 1/3. The escape rate (Action 4) is set to 0 --- no MAP transition is currently active. **Why these rates?** The crisis-resolution rates (6 and 3) are grounded in the BABL death-trifecta (**[Matheo-2]**): under BABL, a crisis resolves through one of three modes --- over-Simplifying (returns to Risky), over-Complicating (returns to Risky), or over-Reaching (leads to Dead). Two out of three modes produce escape; one produces death. The factor of 3 sets the crisis time scale (~40 days average duration, consistent with historical crises). **Simplicity is the point.** In other simulation frameworks, building this model would require hundreds of lines of code, custom data structures, and significant programming expertise. In Evolvix, the entire model fits on a poster. Anyone who can read the code can check the math. This is what Evolvix was designed for: making accurate stochastic modeling accessible to non-programmers. #AuditTheMath