.. meta::
   :og:card:image: _file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/fig/forecast-escape-nuke-winter-madi-researchcity-iv_llol_qqv2_2026m03d02-fig-white.webp

########
Science
########

This page presents evidence for the existential threats facing humanity,
drawn from LLoL's research since 2020. This list is by no means complete —
a sizable literature exists on existential risks. The examples here are
from LLoL's own work.


Accidental nuclear winter: an actuarial forecast
=================================================

The following chart shows a rational, evidence-based forecast of waiting
times before accidental nuclear winter becomes probable, given current
trajectories:

.. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/fig/forecast-escape-nuke-winter-madi-researchcity-iv_llol_qqv2_2026m03d02-fig-white.webp
   :alt: Accidental Nuclear Winter forecast of waiting times
   :align: center
   :width: 100pc

.. Add source citation and methodology link for this model.

This is not a prediction of certainty — it's a probability model. The
point is that current trajectories make catastrophe increasingly likely
unless the underlying decision-making patterns change. The
:doc:`Jubilee System </jubileesystem/index>` offers a path for that
change.


The probabilistic model
=======================

Humanity faces a grave choice at its Great Filter. Too many disasters to
individually predict and avert are currently building momentum.

.. note::

   "As you believe, so it shall be" defines a work-logic cascade that
   either dooms the world or leads to its rescue. Revelation shows how,
   and LLoL found a key to decipher it.

   Therefore, Revelation offers a choice. You get to decide whether this
   choice will receive appropriate review or be buried in the sands of time.

.. only:: html

   .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.webp
      :alt: Poster with model for how to forecast waiting times until accidental nuclear winter
      :align: center
      :width: 100%
      :target: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.pdf

.. only:: latex

   .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.pdf
      :alt: Poster with model for how to forecast waiting times until accidental nuclear winter
      :align: center
      :width: 100%

.. Add source citation and methodology link for this model. Link to Open Letter OL1.

This is not a prediction of certainty — it's a probability model. The
point is that current trajectories make catastrophe increasingly likely
unless the underlying decision-making patterns change. The
:doc:`Jubilee System </jubileesystem/index>` offers a path for that
change.